University of Melbourne economics expert Associate Professor Neville Norman is on sabbatical in Cambridge but sent a summary of his politico-economic predictions home...will his final prediction come true and bring the Western Bulldogs home in glory?
Some Prophetic Predictions of Neville (Never Normal) Norman
1. During May and early June this year (2010) I gave no less than 12 post-budget addresses to business audiences, finishing with the cheeky prediction of "PMG" on a final slide - which I orally translated as "Prime Minister Gillard!" About half my audiences just laughed it off as a joke; the rest
expressed deep concern, even alarm. How do they feel now?
Memo - PM spill 24 June (Thursday) PMG sworn in 12.30pm 25 June
Comment: Prediction 1 was largely motivated by a deep concern. After a commendable start in correcting budget presentation errors of the Howard Government and rapidly and correctly bringing on the first stage of the stimulus packages to prevent recession, which they did, each in 2008, the Rudd Government lost its way.
The ham-fisted mess of introducing the resource (mining sector) super-profit tax they way they did, combined with the insulation support disaster confounded me: whatever happened to 'learning by doing' and getting better by experience? I now opine that PMG will claw back things for both the fabric of economic policy, and the ALP's election prospects. A change of government this year still stands as a clear chance.
2. In September 2008 I predicted rising - not falling interest rates in Australia at the back end of 2009 and into 2010. I was told I was mad and every other Australian economist and forecaster disagreed with me. My numbers in The Age Economic Survey January 2009 confirm all this. My RBA cash rate prediction for December 2009 was 3.75 per cent; most others had rates below 3 per cent, one near
zero.
Memo - RBA cash rate at 31/12/2009 was 3.75 per cent; with two further rises occurring already in 2010.
3. In January 2010, the $US/$A was heading for $1/$1. Many pundits had it rising to $1.20 by June. I put my 30/6/2010 prediction in The Age Economic Survey published that month as 83cents. How does that look now?
4. On this day (25/6/2010) Neville Norman predicted the mighty Western Bulldogs would win the 2010 AFL flag..... (Let's see!!)
Comment: important link between predictions 1 and 4: PMG improves things ands WB to win the flag: PMG is the first-ever Australian Prime Minister to be a (wait for it!) devoted Western Bulldogs supporter!!
Best to all
Neville (in Cambridge UK) - otherwise hard at work on econometric research