We are nearing the half-way mark. How are our horses faring? If the polls are correct, they seem neck and neck, though it's still Ms Gillard by a nose. Heading into this campaign, it was the ALP's to lose. Now, it seems, the Coalition is Moving Forward.
While the two favourites fight it out, a few dark horses are starting to break from the pack. As The Age reported this week, if the election does not give either of the major parties a clear majority, three independent MPs from Queensland may need to be cajoled to form part of the government. We see a similar situation in the Senate, where The Greens may hold the balance of power. This means that the government would have to appease The Greens on a variety of issues before it could get any legislation through.
Is this a bad thing?
It depends.
Those satisfied with the position of either the current government (or who would prefer the opposition in power) may see such situations as a perverse outcome of our democratic system. While technically the power would still rest with the government of the day, in effect parliament would be subject to the agenda of whoever holds the balance.
Other people, though, aren't satisfied with either of the major parties. Such people may not want the minor party in power, but still see them as being a useful check and balance on the excesses of an otherwise powerful government.
Whatever your take on this issue, it is nevertheless an odd situation in which we, as voters, find ourselves. The make-up of the parliament could potentially become as diverse (and divided) as the polity itself. The lack of clear conviction on either side may result in an inability to win the hearts and minds of their respective electorates, and may ultimately lead to a hung parliament.
So, as they come around the corner and through the home stretch, will it be the government by a mile? Or will the opposition rally, resulting in an enthralling photo finish? Will there be an upset, with long-odd independents charging free from the pack? We will just have to wait in the bleachers, until the pounding gallops stop, and we can declare a winner.
We may just have a contest on our hands.
Marty Bortz
Masters Student
School of Social and Political Science
University of Melbourne