Wednesday
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 7:55PM Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 7:55PM Wednesday
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 3:59PM The prophecies of Neville Norman
University of Melbourne economics expert Associate Professor Neville Norman is on sabbatical in Cambridge but sent a summary of his politico-economic predictions home...will his final prediction come true and bring the Western Bulldogs home in glory?
Some Prophetic Predictions of Neville (Never Normal) Norman
1. During May and early June this year (2010) I gave no less than 12 post-budget addresses to business audiences, finishing with the cheeky prediction of "PMG" on a final slide - which I orally translated as "Prime Minister Gillard!" About half my audiences just laughed it off as a joke; the rest
expressed deep concern, even alarm. How do they feel now?
Memo - PM spill 24 June (Thursday) PMG sworn in 12.30pm 25 June
Comment: Prediction 1 was largely motivated by a deep concern. After a commendable start in correcting budget presentation errors of the Howard Government and rapidly and correctly bringing on the first stage of the stimulus packages to prevent recession, which they did, each in 2008, the Rudd Government lost its way.
The ham-fisted mess of introducing the resource (mining sector) super-profit tax they way they did, combined with the insulation support disaster confounded me: whatever happened to 'learning by doing' and getting better by experience? I now opine that PMG will claw back things for both the fabric of economic policy, and the ALP's election prospects. A change of government this year still stands as a clear chance.
2. In September 2008 I predicted rising - not falling interest rates in Australia at the back end of 2009 and into 2010. I was told I was mad and every other Australian economist and forecaster disagreed with me. My numbers in The Age Economic Survey January 2009 confirm all this. My RBA cash rate prediction for December 2009 was 3.75 per cent; most others had rates below 3 per cent, one near
zero.
Memo - RBA cash rate at 31/12/2009 was 3.75 per cent; with two further rises occurring already in 2010.
3. In January 2010, the $US/$A was heading for $1/$1. Many pundits had it rising to $1.20 by June. I put my 30/6/2010 prediction in The Age Economic Survey published that month as 83cents. How does that look now?
4. On this day (25/6/2010) Neville Norman predicted the mighty Western Bulldogs would win the 2010 AFL flag..... (Let's see!!)
Comment: important link between predictions 1 and 4: PMG improves things ands WB to win the flag: PMG is the first-ever Australian Prime Minister to be a (wait for it!) devoted Western Bulldogs supporter!!
Best to all
Neville (in Cambridge UK) - otherwise hard at work on econometric research
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Wednesday
Jul212010
Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 2:45PM What’s it to you?
I have never engaged with the nitty gritty of an election campaign. Have you? I wonder how many of us have? Compulsory voting doesn’t mean compulsory ‘thinking before you vote’. So in July and August this year I’m going to pay attention and try to make an informed choice when I cast my vote (about time - this is the fourth federal election in which I am eligible to participate). How embarrassing to not take my democratic right seriously. Anyway, I’m hoping my choice in 2010 will be the result of an analysis as to what’s best for me and mine, but also what’s best for the country. Oh yes.
So I’ll look at some policies that are important to me, such as action on climate change, the right of women to paid maternity leave and not to be punished for time out of the workplace to have and look after children. Access to quality childcare and after school care, and I’ll have a look at the economic, health, education and aged care policies. Time to decide who offers the best way forward and what the differences are between the two major parties and the independents and Greens.
The ABC’s Mark Simkin says its close enough between Labour and the Coalition for good campaigning to make a difference on August 21, so in my blogs I’m going to look at the personalities, the campaign methods, the highs and lows, the points of difference.
Will it be Tony 10 or Ju G? Julia Gillard, the Labour incumbent, says she’s called the election because the Australian people have a right to be led by an elected prime minister. Will the election be soon enough for her to ride the wave of current popularity straight to the Lodge? Or as a friends suggested will she get the majority of female votes just because she’s a woman?
The average punter’s decision may be based on how they appear in the evening news and in the major papers. Tonight on the television Julia was beautifully groomed, she was calm and composed, polite and eloquent. She looked happy and relaxed. Tony Abbott was well groomed and looked fit (we all know he exercises a lot), but he also looked angry, stressed and was very negative ‘it’s going to be a filthy campaign’. I know it is the job of the opposition to oppose but why doesn’t he quickly ‘bridge’ to his party’s own message rather than spending all his airtime criticising Labour? He needs to chill out and focus on his own message.
Penny Rush
Masters Student, School of Social and Political Sciences